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        The youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026
        ·
        26 October 2026
        ·
        20 October → 25 October 2026
        ·
        2,632 items (2,617 comments · 15 posts)
        ·Facebook, YouTube
      

What this report answers

What is the tone of the conversation?

Neutral (37%) and positive (35%) are about level.

Are they for it or against it?

45% of comments hold a position opposing the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026 and none supporting them, and 5% the reverse. Most common position against: "Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation" (23%). For: "Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances" (6%).

How are they arguing about it?

Most often through a Moral Condemnation frame, in 23% of items.

Who is doing the talking?

Largest single variety: items written in MSA, 42% of items. A variety is not a location.

Is any of this manufactured?

The scanner counted 4 of the 5 indicators it could check (rating: LOW); it could not check for uniform hashtags. That is a prompt to read the flagged items, not a finding.

Every figure here is repeated, with its base, in the section it comes from.

Data Completeness

Under 3 of the 15 posts, fewer comments were collected than the post showed: they showed 1,328 between them and 1,032 distinct comments were collected. For 7 of the 15 posts the export recorded no comment count, so whether all their comments were collected is not known.
101 items (15 posts and 86 comments) published by the accounts behind the posts this conversation was collected from carry no tone, position, dialect, theme or framing in this report: they are those accounts speaking, not the audience responding. They remain in the 2,632-item total. Positions and tone divide by the 2,489 audience items with text; every other share divides by the total, so these items sit in its denominator without counting toward any category. 42 comments by other people carry neither words nor emoji (an image, a sticker, punctuation alone, or text the export did not keep) and are not classified either. Together, 143 items (5.4% of the total) carry no classification, so a share of what the audience wrote is about 6% higher than the figure shown (30% of items is 32% of what the audience wrote). Everything else written by other people is counted normally, apart from any listed below.
2 comments were stored twice in the collected data, the second time with the writer's name and the comment's age in front of the text, and often the page's buttons ("Like", "Reply") after it. Each is counted once.
52 extra copies of comments were collected: the same writer, post and text, at the same time or with the time read hours apart. Each comment is counted once.
9 comments were stored twice, the second time with the page's labels ("· by author", "· Follow") in front of the text. Each is counted once.

Key Findings

What the comparisons in the data show, beyond the headline figures.

KF-001

Position holders split sharply by the post they answered

Foreign residents and refugees should avoid the protests to escape legal risks and deportation: this view is held by 58% of items under Abdulkader Alshekh's post, 40% under Abdullah al-Dimashqi's post and 35% under Nebras Akeel's post. Under Ja genau's post it is 2% and under DW Arabic's post 3%.

Several of the posts were themselves warnings to stay home, and more than half of items holding this position imply it rather than state it, mostly by agreeing with such a warning. How prominent this warning looks depends heavily on which page's comments are read, so each page's comments should be judged separately.

KF-002

Gratitude-to-Germany duty is concentrated under one of Khaled Bozan's videos

The view that migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as gratitude and loyalty to Germany is held by 37% of items under Khaled Bozan's 22 October video, against 15% under his 21 October video, and by 21% under MaroWeltShow's post. It is held by 3% under Nebras Akeel's post. Within the integration and gratitude theme, 60% of items hold this view.

The gratitude argument is much stronger under some pages' posts than others, so the client should not treat it as an equal feature of every page.

KF-003

Residency-risk talk splits between deportation rhetoric and cautionary advice

Within the residency status risks theme, 37% of items hold that migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home, against 31% holding that foreign residents should avoid protests to avoid deportation. Overall the former is held by 9% of items. It reaches 21% under the Arab and Syrian Community page's post.

Comment sections on residency topics carry hostile deportation calls alongside cautionary advice, which matters for moderation planning.

KF-004

Levantine items are far more negative in tone than MSA items

44% of Levantine items are negative in tone, against 17% of MSA items. MSA items are 47% positive in tone, against 19% for Levantine. Positive tone is a measure of emotional tone, not agreement with the protests.

Tone readings should be split by dialect, since the overall tone mix hides a wide gap between the 2 largest varieties, though about 320 of the positive MSA items are blessings or greetings, so part of the gap is one of form.

KF-005

Claims that the protests are a trap cluster under Khaled Bozan's posts

The view that the protests are a dangerous trap to incite violence and smear migrants is held by 8% of items. 41% of those items sit under 2 of Khaled Bozan's posts, which hold 28% of items overall. The AfD-exploitation view (3%) is likewise concentrated there, with 51% under those posts.

KF-006

The democratic-rights position is small, and strongest where cost of living is discussed

Participation as a legitimate democratic right and a response to socio-economic grievances is held by 6% of items. Within the cost of living theme it reaches 43% of items. It is highest under the Germany News page's post at 17% and lowest under Abdullah al-Dimashqi's post at 1%.

Arguments for protesting surface most clearly where economic grievance is raised, though the position is itself worded around such grievances, so this overlap is partly by definition.

KF-007

Few items with no listed position state another view

989 items, 40%, hold no listed position, and 156 of them state a clear view not on the list. Sample comments include attacks on the authors of the stay-home posts as liars, hypocrites or sycophants, blame on the US, Trump or the Ukraine war for Europe's troubles, and attacks on one of the two guests in DW Arabic's video. 5% hold a position supporting the protests and none opposing, against 45% holding a position opposing them and none supporting, based on positions.

The client should read the 156 off-list views to see whether a position is missing; about half of the other items with no listed position are greetings, thanks, prayers or tags, and about a quarter are insults and jibes.

What People Argue

The positions people hold, for and against, and where they differ by source and over time, in their own words.

03.1

Positions

The views people hold, each written as a proposition and agreed with the analyst before classification. A comment can hold more than one.

The leading positions both tell migrants to stay away: 23% of items hold that foreign residents and refugees should avoid the protests to escape legal risk and deportation, and 15% hold that migrants owe Germany gratitude and loyalty. The first leads the second by 7 points. By contrast, 6% of items hold that taking part is a democratic right. Based on the positions people hold, 45% of items hold a position opposing the protests, and 5% hold a position supporting them and none opposing. About 110 of the 1,131 items against only thank, bless or respect Germany and do not mention the protests; without them the share against is about 41%. A further 40% of items hold none of the listed positions. By this report's reading of their stored text, 8 of the 15 posts warned migrants about the protests or aired calls to stay away. They hold 1,756 of the 2,489 items read for positions, 51% of which hold a position against, compared with 32% of the 733 under the other seven. These are comments from people who chose to reply to 15 posts, so they do not represent any wider public.

% of items holding each position, of the 2,489 read for positions. A comment can hold more than one, so the bars do not sum to 100%.

Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation

23%

568

Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany

15%

382

Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home

219

The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants

211

Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances

142

Opposes the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason

The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France

The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants

The protests are irrelevant or unlikely to have a significant impact

Supports the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason

<1%

No listed position

40%

989

For or against the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026

Hold a position against

45% 1,131 comments

Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation 23%
Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany 15%
The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants 8%
Opposes the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason 4%
The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France 3%
The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants 3%

Hold a position in favour

5% 133 comments

Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances 6%
Supports the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason <1%

Derived from the positions people hold, using the analyst's tags of which positions support and which oppose the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026; the model is never asked. 1% hold positions on both sides, 9% only positions that are neither, and 40% no listed position.

Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation 23% · 568 items

Holders urge fellow Syrians and other migrants to stay home. About 20 of the 568 items warn in their own words that those who go could be deported or lose residence or citizenship, and a few that anyone filmed at a protest could be blamed or deported. Many comments are short thanks and agreement with a post that warned them to stay home, or say that Germans should handle their own politics. Some insult would-be participants as thieves, idiots or "station lads", one calls them drug users, and one hopes anyone who goes out will be "broken, jailed and deported". Another, also counted under the position that migrants should be deported, says anyone who goes out must be impaled and deported; it is on the violent-language risk card.

Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany 15% · 382 items

Holders say Germany gave refugees safety, dignity and a livelihood, and that staying out of protests is the way to repay it. They thank the country and its people, ask God to protect it, and use proverbs about behaving well as a guest. Some call anyone who joins a traitor or an ingrate. Some speak as Kurds and some as Palestinians, and say they will not take part or advise others against it. About 110 of the 382 items only thank, bless or respect Germany and do not mention the protests. They count here because the position includes gratitude to the German people, and so they count among the items against.

Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home 9% · 219 items

Holders attack Arabs, Syrians and some Muslims and Islam itself as thieves, terrorists, rapists and troublemakers, some with sectarian or regional slurs, and say they should be sent back. Many mock the stay-home appeals and the loyalty campaign, asking where this concern or loyalty was for their own country. Some use the protests to call for deportation, some voice support for the AfD, and several call for force against anyone who protests, from beatings to live ammunition; five of these are on the violent-language risk card, as are two that call them germs or insects.

The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants 8% · 211 items

Holders say the protests are staged or will be hijacked, to provoke migrants into trouble so they can be blamed and expelled. Most name no one, speaking of a plan, infiltrators, hidden hands or outsiders carrying flags. Those who name someone most often name the far right or Israel or "the Zionists", and also the US, Russia or extremists. Others say migrants will be blamed even if they stay home. Some point to Palestinian and Syrian flags at the events as part of the set-up, and urge people not to take the bait. Some blame rival Syrian groups instead: regime remnants, minorities, Druze, Jolani's group or the Muslim Brotherhood.

Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances 6% · 142 items

Holders say protest is allowed in a democracy and that people have real complaints about housing, jobs and money. Some argue that migrants standing beside Germans over such issues would help them, some that migrants will be blamed whether they go or not, and some say peaceful protest is fine but damage is not; some say protesters should themselves seize or confront anyone who riots, and one calls rioters "a germ that must be exterminated" (this comment is on the violent-language risk card). Many turn on the stay-home campaign itself, calling it servility or the fear of authority brought over from Syria, and some object to taxes going to Ukraine. Some say they will go or urge others to, a few of them in sarcasm, and one jokes that he will raise the Syrian flag and throw stones at the police. Some curse Germany or insult those urging people to stay home. One of them tells Germany to go to hell and "do more, more than France", and also answers the police union with "we too will show you no mercy, you infidels"; that second comment holds no listed position and is on the violent-language risk card.

Opposes the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason 4% · 90 items

Holders reject the protests flatly, with short statements such as no to sabotage and violence, or that Germany should be left in peace. Some add insults toward those who would take part, and one says participants deserve deportation. Some want the protests put down by force, and one asks for a state of emergency, a curfew and the army in the cities. Four comments in this position are on the violent-language risk card.

The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France 3% · 70 items

Holders expect looting and unrest and point to France as the model. Some use the comparison to warn migrants off, and some, often mockingly, cast Muslims as the looters, in France or to come here, while some blame Algerians or other North Africans for the unrest in France; one names "Jolani's group" and one "Bani Umayya". Two say they now fear or hate leaving the house, and one account repeatedly asks the state to close and barricade shops beforehand.

The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants 3% · 69 items

Holders fear that any misconduct by one migrant would be used by right-wing parties such as the AfD to blame all migrants. They use this to argue that nobody should attend. Some say the far right will plant saboteurs among the protesters, and some tie the AfD to Russia and Putin.

The protests are irrelevant or unlikely to have a significant impact 1% · 37 items

Holders say the protests will change nothing, because decisions are already made or because people will be deported whether they attend or not. Others say nobody will turn up, because people are busy working and raising children or too worn down. Some say nothing will happen in Germany, and two dismiss the reports of unrest as lies.

Supports the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason <1% · 6 items

Holders give brief blessings and encouragement, such as asking God to give strength, without saying to whom, or declaring loyalty to a city. One asks for a protest without theft or damage, as an example to the French.

Among the positions held by 30 items or more, those in which more than 15% of items imply the position rather than state it in the comment itself are: "Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation" in 54% of its items; "Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany" in 21% of its items; "Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances" in 25% of its items; "The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France" in 19% of its items. 190 items (8%) hold a view not on the list (156 of them hold no listed position), among them, in no order of size: "Angela Merkel is responsible for the crimes and victims resulting from her decision to open Germany's borders"; "Anyone who causes destruction in Germany should be arrested immediately by the authorities"; "Anyone who causes harm should be punished".

By source

Position	Abdulkader Alshekh (53)	DW Arabic (DW عربية) (146)	Furat Shibli (70)	Ja genau (51)	Khaled Bozan (686)	MaroWeltShow - أخبار ألمانيا مارو (156)	Nebras Akeel (294)	Germany News (اخبار المانيا) (93)	Hamburg Nachrichten (56)	Integration and Life in Germany (الاندماج والحياة في ألمانيا) (103)	Arab and Syrian Community in Germany (الجالية العربية و السورية في ألمانيا) (56)	Syrer in Essen (156)	Abdullah al-Dimashqi (عبدالله الدمشقي) (541)
Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation	58%	3%	7%	2%	17%	13%	35%	28%	23%	11%	9%	6%	40%
Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany	15%	2%	4%	2%	28%	21%	3%	14%	13%	6%	9%	10%	16%
Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home	8%	7%	10%	2%	2%	6%	7%	12%	18%	9%	21%	10%	16%
The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants	11%	7%	9%	8%	13%	9%	11%	13%	2%	6%	9%	3%	4%
Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances	2%	8%	9%	6%	6%	3%	10%	17%	5%	7%	4%	9%	1%
Opposes the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason	2%	3%	4%	4%	7%	3%	1%	1%	4%	12%	7%	0%	1%
Against, derived	75%	18%	27%	20%	55%	40%	47%	46%	41%	36%	29%	17%	58%
In favour, derived	2%	8%	9%	6%	5%	2%	9%	17%	5%	9%	5%	9%	1%

Share of each source's own items; sources under 30 items are left out. The table shows the largest positions, and any other whose share of a source's own items the text gives.

Over time

Period	Items	Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation	Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany	Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home	The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants	The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France
20 October 2026	39	0%	3%	3%	8%	10%
21 October 2026	452	13%	13%	5%	10%	5%
22 October 2026	838	20%	23%	6%	11%	3%
23 October 2026	410	28%	15%	17%	5%	1%
24 October 2026	466	36%	7%	10%	10%	2%
25 October 2026	284	18%	12%	10%	3%	1%

By day, audience items whose positions were read and that carry a date; periods with fewer than 30 items are left out. The page whose posts hold most of the items is not the same every day, so a change between days can be a change of page rather than of opinion.

03.2

In Their Own Words

Comments that state the leading positions.

Comments are quoted as written; see the content note in the Summary.

One comment for each of the leading positions, long ones shortened here; every quoted comment is in the appendix, whole.

I want to understand who this Arab (the "smart one") is who wants to go out, what is he complaining about, that he goes out to take part in this kind of wrecking of a country that has offered you what you wouldn't even dream of? Why do you want to go out? What are you lacking, you who hold citizenship and support the Alternative (AfD)? Look, your going out and your wrecking won't bring trouble on those without citizenship, quite the opposite. The trouble will begin with you, the citizenship holder, and it is already coming down. So stop playing the know-it-all, because this demonstration is not clean, it is staged in order to target Europe and wreck it. What are the European people lacking that they would go out and demonstrate? That is why this is not clean, and they will also shove the name of the refugees into it.

بدي افهم مين العربي (الفهمان) الي بدو يطلع من شو عم يشكي ليطلع يشارك بهيك خراب بلد مقدملك الي ما تحلم فيه لشو بدك تطلع شو ناقصك انت صاحب الجنسيه داعم البديل ترى طلعتك وتخريبك ما تجيب بلا للي ما عندو جنسيه بل العكس. راح يبلش البلا من شاربك انت صاحب الجنسيه وهي نازله لذلك لا (تتفهمن) زياده لأن هاي المظاهره مي نظيفه مفتعله من أجل استهداف أوربا وتخريبها شو ناقصو الشعب الأوربي تا يطلع مظاهرات لذلك هاي مي نظيفه وكمان راح يدحشو اسم الاجئين فيها

Comment · Levantine · Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation + The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants + Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany + The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants · NEGATIVE tone · Facebook

I'm responsible for myself and answer only for myself. I have absolutely no interest in anything on Saturday and Sunday. Because of my work, I'm working on Saturday, I go to work, I work, and finally I go back home, cook food, rest, and get ready for Sunday so I can wake up early and get ready for work. I wish love and loyalty for Germany. And for the German people, who stood by us from the beginning of the asylum wave until today and provided us with jobs and schools. If I see vandalism in my area, or someone throwing a cigarette on the road, I get upset, because I consider myself a son of this area, one of them and among them. From work to home. From home to work.

انا مني وعلي . مالي مصلحة نهائياً يوم السبت والاحد بحكم عملي بكون شغال السبت رايح ع الشغل. واشتغل وارجع اخر شي ع البيت واعمل اكل وارتاح واستعد ليوم الاحد عشان فيق بكير و اتيسر للشغل اتمنى الحب والاخلاص لاالمانيا. وللشعب الالماني وقفو معنا من بداية موجة لجوء الى حد يوم وفرولنا وظائف عمل ومدارس انا اذا بشوف في منطقتي تخريب او حدا بكب سيكارة بل طريق بدايق لانو اعتبر حالي ابن هل المنطقة ومنهم وفيهم من الشغل للبيت . من البيت للشغل

Comment · Levantine · Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany · POSITIVE tone · YouTube

Peace be upon you. The floods of migration from the Arab and Islamic countries will have a negative effect and pose risks to the demographic and social map of Western countries, and then to the political one. There will be no democracy, no liberalism, and no nothing if the West does not put a stop to the advance of the savages on contemporary civilisation. Reality has proven that all attempts at democracy after the Arab Spring and the fall of the regime in Iraq have failed, and any free experiment will fail with peoples like these. How does the civilised West receive these hateful, backward people? Where are the strategic studies centres in those advanced countries, to prevent ignorance and hatred from seeping and rushing into Western life? Mass migration from one country to another, and even within the same country, produces social and administrative negatives, especially if the migrating material is of low responsibility. If peoples want to change their condition for the better, let them do so in their own country, when they trust in their own will, and not by searching for a better life served on a ready plate in the economically and politically advanced countries. The West is this West: it will not change its character and its cultural patterns…

سلام عليكم ، سيول الهجرة من الدول العربية والإسلامية سوف تؤثر سلبا ولها مخاطر على الخارطة الديمغرافية الإجتماعية للبلدان الغربية ثم السياسية ، فلا ديمقراطية بعد ولا ليبرالية ولا بطيخ إذا لم يضع الغرب حدا لزحف الهمج على الحضارة المعاصرة ، وقد برهن الواقع على أن كل المحاولات إلى الديمقراطية بعد الربيع العربي وسقوط النظام في العراق قد فشلت ، وستفشل أي تجربة حرة على مثل هكذا شعوب ، كيف يستقبل الغرب المتحضر هؤلاء الحاقدين المتخلفين ، أين مراكز الدراسات الستراتيجية في تلك الدول المتقدمة لمنع تسرب واندفاع الجهل والحقد إلى حياة الغرب ، فإن الهجرة بكثافة من بلد إلى بلد ، بل حتى من نفس البلد أمر ينتج سلبيات إجتماعية وإدارية وخاصة إذا كانت المادة المهاجرة واطئة المسؤلية ، فإذا أرادت الشعوب تغير حالها إلى الأحسن فتفعل ذلك في بلدها عند ثقتها على إرادتها بنفسها ، وليس بالبحث عن الحياة الأفضل على طبق حاضر في البلدان المتقدمة إقتصاديا وسياسيا ، الغرب هو هذا الغرب لا يغير طباعه وأنماطه الثقافية …

Comment · MSA · Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home · NEGATIVE tone · Facebook

We reject anything that harms Germany's security or tampers with it in any way or form, and we warn against being drawn into acts of rioting that would affect all of us. Beware of the AfD, because it will exploit these demonstrations to its own advantage by planting people among the demonstrators to provoke riots and chaos so that it can blame the refugees. We ask all of you, in every German city, to be careful and alert to them using it against us. Security, safety and stability for Germany.

نرفض اي شي يمس بأمن ألمانيا والعبث به باي صورة وأي شكل من الأشكال ونحذر عدم الانجرار إلى أعمال شغب تؤثر علينا جميعا. والحذر من حزب البديل انه سوف يوظف هذه المظاهرات لصالحه من خلال دس أناس مع المظاهرات لاثارة الشغب والفوضى حتى يتهم اللاجئين نرجوكم جميعا في كل المدن الالمانية الإنتباه والحذر من توظيفها ضدنا الأمن والأمان والاستقرار لألمانيا

Comment · MSA · The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants + The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants · NEUTRAL tone · YouTube

We are not guests but citizens. Just as we have duties, we have rights guaranteed by the constitution and the law... We have been paying taxes for ten years so that they come back to us as benefits in education, health, transport and the means of a decent life... not so that our taxes are squandered on supporting Ukraine and other countries. Germany has one of the highest tax rates in the world, and in return we have the highest fuel prices and the highest electricity prices. We pay taxes so that we may enjoy a decent life for ourselves and our children, not so that they are plundered and spent on financing wars that are none of our business... Germany must be an independent country, and decisions must not be dictated to it from across the Atlantic... We used to get the cheapest gas from Russia, and now we pay the highest price to buy gas from Norway and America... Look at the level of inflation that foolish policies have dragged us into. We are against rioting and damage to public and private property, and in favour of respect for the law, which permits us to express our opinion.

نحن لسنا ضيوف بل مواطنون فكما علينا واجبات لدينا حقوق يكفلها الدستور والقانون ...نحن ندفع الضرائب منذ عشر سنوات لتعود علينا بفوائد بالتعليم والصحة والمواصلات وسبل العيش الكريم ...لا حتى تبذر ضرائبنا في دعم أوكرانيا وغيرها من الدول ألمانيا من أعلى معدلات الضرائب في العالم بالمقابل لدينا أعلى سعر وقود وأعلى سعر كهرباء ندفع الضرائب حتى ننعم بعيش كريم لنا ولأولادنا ليس لتنهب وتصرف لتمويل حروب ليس لنا ناقة ولا جمل فيها ...يجب أن تكون ألمانيا دولة مستقلة ولا تملى عليها القرارات من خلف الأطلسي ...كنا نجصل على أرخص غاز من روسيا والآن ندغع أعلى سعر لشراء الغاز من النرويج وأمريكا ...إنظر لمستوى التضخم الذي جرتتا إليها سياسات حمقاء ...نحن ضد الشغب والإضرار بالممتلكات العامة والخاصة ومع احترام القانون الذي يبيح لنا التعبير عن رأينا

Comment · MSA · Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances · NEUTRAL tone · Facebook

How They Argue

What the conversation is about, how it is argued and how it sounds.

How to read the labels

Position: what a comment claims (section 03). Theme: what it is about. Frame: how it is argued. Tone: how it sounds, whatever it is about. Every comment is read for all four, and they answer different questions: for example, a comment that calmly sets out what a decision will cost and calls it unfair holds a position (the decision is unfair), falls under a theme (the cost of living), argues through a frame (economic reasoning) and is neutral in tone, though its view is critical.

04.1

Tone

The emotional tone of the items, whatever they are about. Tone is not a view of the subject: what people think is in Positions.

The tone is split -- neutral (37%) and positive (35%) are about level.

Positive runs 7 points ahead of negative.

% of the 2,489 items counted · tone of the item

Neutral

37%

913

Positive

35%

873

Negative

28%

703

What each tone holds

Neutral items make up 37% of items. 352 of the 913 hold no listed position, and the rest argue that foreign residents and refugees should stay away from the protests to avoid legal trouble and deportation, that the protests are a trap meant to provoke violence and smear migrants, and that migrants owe Germany gratitude and loyalty. Others defend joining as a democratic right to raise real grievances such as housing, hospitals and jobs, or warn that the far right (AfD) will use the protests against migrants. Their tone stays calm and matter-of-fact, in advice, questions and short agreement. Positive items, 35% of items: 332 of the 873 hold no listed position, and the rest back the call for foreign residents and refugees to stay out of the protests, and back the idea that migrants owe Germany gratitude, in warm words of thanks, respect and prayers for the speaker and for Germany. Negative items, 28% of items: 305 of the 703 hold no listed position, more than half of them quarrels among commenters (about 85), attacks on the pages and their stay-home or loyalty appeals (about 65) or on one of the two guests in DW Arabic's video (about 25); the items holding a position centre on claims that migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be sent home, and on the view that the protests are a trap meant to provoke violence and damage migrants' reputation, voiced in curses, mockery and contempt.

04.2

Themes

The recurring topics and subjects running through the conversation.

"Integration and Gratitude" (22%) and "Community Reputation" (22%) are about level -- the two most common topics in this conversation.

% of items · theme (one item may carry multiple themes)

Integration and Gratitude

22%

588

Community Reputation

22%

570

Protest Participation

17%

456

Foreign Influence Narratives

12%

315

Public Security Measures

11%

279

Civil Unrest Comparisons

217

Residency Status Risks

202

Legal Compliance

183

Cost of Living

"Cost of Living" is added to the chart because the findings cite it; it falls outside the themes it would otherwise show.

Not charted, at 0.5% of items or more: Right Wing Politics (4%), Education Investment (1%).

Integration and Gratitude (588 items)

In this theme, 60% of items hold the position that migrants owe Germany gratitude and loyalty and should therefore stay away from the protests; about 110 of these 351 only thank, bless or respect Germany. Commenters pray that God protects Germany and its people, say they will never forget what the country did for them, and call on everyone to avoid "denying a favour". Some say Germany gave refugees what no one else did and that those who want to repay it should help it keep its security and peace. A further 26% of items in this theme hold that foreign residents and refugees should stay away from the protests; 71 of these 154 only imply it, mostly by thanking or praising a post that warned them, and about 30 carry a word of legal or practical risk. One commenter says Germany backed Syrians to the last minute, for years from their arrival until they were naturalised, so they should stay in their homes and families should keep their children in. Smaller groups hold other views. 4% of items in this theme call migrants criminal or destructive and say they should go home, with one commenter calling Syrians an "ungrateful people". Another 4% of items in this theme call the protests a trap meant to provoke violence and smear migrants. Some reject the idea of owing Germany anything, saying they are citizens who pay taxes rather than guests; one says no European country did refugees any favour.

Community Reputation (570 items)

In this theme, 23% of items hold that migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home. Commenters in this group call them thieves, one calls them "sleeper cells" of terrorists with no loyalty to Germany, and some tell them to go back to their own country. A further 19% of items in this theme say foreign residents and refugees should stay away from the protests to avoid legal trouble and deportation. Another 15% of items in this theme call the protests a trap meant to provoke violence and smear migrants. These commenters fear that outsiders will turn up waving the Syrian flag and cause damage in the name of Syrians. A separate 14% of items in this theme say migrants owe Germany gratitude and loyalty, and one commenter promises to defend the country on behalf of honourable Syrians.

Protest Participation (456 items)

In this theme, 37% of items tell foreign residents and refugees to stay away from the protests to avoid legal trouble and deportation. Commenters write short warnings such as "nobody should go out to protest", and some thank the page and pray that the day passes without problems. A further 22% of items in this theme say migrants owe Germany gratitude and loyalty, so staying home is the right thing to do. Another 21% of items in this theme call the protests a trap. Some of these commenters predict that Syrian flags will appear and the media will then blame Syrians, and some claim outsiders will carry those flags to frame migrants. 17% of items in this theme defend taking part as a democratic right. One of them argues that people blame refugees whenever prices, taxes or the minimum wage come up, so refugees have every reason to join. One says that if people had feared protests, they would not be in Europe.

Foreign Influence Narratives (315 items)

34% of items in this theme argue the protests are a trap meant to provoke violence and smear migrants. Commenters warn that organisers are luring Arabs into a setup. Those who name someone most often name the far right or Israel or "the Zionists", and others name the US or Russia; some put it in antisemitic terms. Some predict that someone will turn up waving a Syrian flag, and that this will be used against all migrants. Others say foreigners will be blamed even if they stay home. 16% of items in this theme say migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should go home. One writer posted the same reply five times, each to a commenter who had defended protesting: he calls each an "agent" luring Arabs into the abyss, says citizenship or a residence permit does not entitle them to protest, and tells them to go back to their country if they dislike Germany. A further 13% of items in this theme tell foreign residents and refugees to stay away to avoid legal risk and deportation. Another 10% of items in this theme say the far right, including the AfD, will use any incident to blame all of Germany's problems on migrants.

Public Security Measures (279 items)

Comments in this theme centre on telling migrants to stay home on the day. 28% of items in this theme say foreign residents and refugees should not take part, to avoid legal trouble and deportation. Commenters give practical advice: keep the children indoors and stay off camera, and one says to stay away even from the supermarket until the day passes. A further 20% of items in this theme say migrants owe Germany gratitude and loyalty, thank it for its hospitality, ask God to protect it, and call for safety and security to be kept. 16% of items in this theme call the protests a trap meant to provoke violence and smear migrants' reputation. 10% of items in this theme predict riots like those in France. 14% of items in this theme oppose the protests without giving a reason, and one commenter of Syrian origin says they reject any unrest that threatens Germany's stability. Others call for harsh action: some demand that anyone inciting violence be expelled at once, and several call for violence against protesters, from the police crushing their heads to live ammunition and opening fire on anyone who is not German; those named here are on the violent-language risk card.

04.3

Narrative Mapping

The frames and storylines being used to discuss this subject.

"Moral Condemnation" is the most used frame, at 23% of items -- the commonest way of arguing here, not the only one.

% of items · narrative frame used (one item may use multiple)

Moral Condemnation

23%

603

Blessing or Greeting

19%

505

Sarcasm and Ridicule

10%

255

Plea or Demand

226

Personal Testimony

213

Comparison with Elsewhere

158

Insult and Abuse

156

Question

121

Economic Reasoning

Not charted, at 0.5% of items or more: Religious Citation (1%), Appeal to Expertise (1%).

How each position is argued

Position	Most used frames among its holders
Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation	Moral Condemnation 26%; Blessing or Greeting 24%; Plea or Demand 14%
Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany	Moral Condemnation 49%; Blessing or Greeting 25%; Personal Testimony 16%
Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home	Moral Condemnation 41%; Insult and Abuse 21%; Sarcasm and Ridicule 19%
The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants	Moral Condemnation 50%; Comparison with Elsewhere 14%; Personal Testimony 14%
Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances	Moral Condemnation 26%; Comparison with Elsewhere 17%; Plea or Demand 15%
Opposes the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason	Moral Condemnation 41%; Plea or Demand 27%; Personal Testimony 9%
The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France	Comparison with Elsewhere 43%; Personal Testimony 21%; Moral Condemnation 20%
The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants	Moral Condemnation 45%; Plea or Demand 22%; Comparison with Elsewhere 14%; Personal Testimony 14%
The protests are irrelevant or unlikely to have a significant impact	Moral Condemnation 24%; Sarcasm and Ridicule 22%; Comparison with Elsewhere 16%; Personal Testimony 16%
Supports the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason	Blessing or Greeting 50%

Of the items holding each position, the share using each frame. An item can use more than one frame. Each row shows its three most used frames, more where tied; frames held by fewer than 3 of a position's items are left out. 1 of these groups holds fewer than 30 items (6), so each of its shares stands for a few comments, not a steady rate; any table that breaks a figure down by source, period or dialect shows no shares within such groups.

Frame descriptions

Moral Condemnation	This frame appears in 23% of items, with commenters calling organisers or participants despicable or ungrateful, warning that outsiders will carry the Syrian flag and cause damage, and saying that guests owe respect to the country that took them in.
Blessing or Greeting	This frame appears in 19% of items, taking the form of thanks to a poster, prayers and wishes that Germany and everyone in it stay safe, and wishes that the day passes without trouble.
Sarcasm and Ridicule	This frame appears in 10% of items, with commenters mocking the stay-home and loyalty appeals as bootlicking, jeering at Syrians, Arabs and Muslims as thieves, and deriding one of the two guests in DW Arabic's video, those who would wave a national flag, and the idle "station lads" expected to turn out.
Plea or Demand	This frame appears in 9% of items, ranging from urging people to stay home, to calling on the German government to crack down on troublemakers, to repeated demands for immediate deportation.
Personal Testimony	This frame appears in 8% of items, with commenters speaking as a Syrian, a Kurd or a Palestinian, saying what Germany gave them, or saying what they will do on the day.
Comparison with Elsewhere	This frame appears in 6% of items, most often setting Germany beside the riots in France, or beside Syria and the countries commenters left; a few contrast Germany's right to protest with those places.
Insult and Abuse	This frame appears in 6% of items. Its definition: slurs, curses or name-calling aimed at a person or group.
Question	This frame appears in 5% of items. Its definition: asking for information or an explanation.
Economic Reasoning	This frame appears in 2% of items. Its definition: arguing from prices, costs, incomes or markets.

Who and When

Who is speaking, in which variety, and how the conversation moved over time.

This report has no "Discourse over time" section. That section compares episodes, surges of conversation: days with at least 20 items and three times the usual daily volume, grouped when they fall within three days of each other, 100 items or more in all. It looks for them only in a conversation longer than three weeks; this one spans 6 calendar days, too short for episodes. The volume chart below shows how it moved.

05.1

Temporal

How the conversation has moved over time.

A post's stored time may not be when it was published: 185 comments carry a time earlier than their post's.

Day	Volume	Tone
20 October 2026	40	21%↑ 41%↓
21 October 2026	465	39%↑ 19%↓
22 October 2026	852	41%↑ 23%↓
23 October 2026	421	34%↑ 33%↓
24 October 2026	538	30%↑ 29%↓
25 October 2026	316	22%↑ 49%↓

Volume counts every dated item, those the audience did not write included. Tone shares divide by the audience's items on that day.

The items start at 18:47 UTC on 20 October and were collected for most posts on 25 October, before the day was out, so the first and last bars cover part of a day. Read the ends as partial, not as a ramp or a collapse.

05.2

Language & Dialect

Which language and dialect communities are most active in this conversation.

MSA is the largest single variety at 42% -- the formal written register, used across the whole region; it says how this audience writes, not where it is.

% of items · language, or Arabic dialect where the text is Arabic

MSA

42%

1,114

Levantine

35%

921

Gulf

Egyptian

Maghrebi

English

<1%

The bars above cover 2,251 of the 2,632 items (86%). The other 381: 101 published by the pages themselves, which carry no dialect; 42 with no text to read; 238 the report could not place in one of its six varieties: 138 unclear, 43 in other languages or varieties (German 37), 26 mixing two languages or varieties (most often MSA mixed with German) and 31 that are only a tagged name or a platform translation, not counted as English.

Positions by dialect

Dialect	Items	Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation	Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany	Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home	The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants	Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances
MSA	1,114	25%	24%	6%	8%	5%
Levantine	921	23%	10%	13%	11%	7%
Gulf	97	31%	2%	10%	6%	6%
Egyptian	86	26%	7%	12%	7%	5%

Share of each dialect group's items; groups under 30 items are left out.

What the dialect breakdown reveals

MSA writers produce 42% of items and Levantine-speaking commenters 35%, while Gulf-dialect writers account for 4% and Egyptian-dialect writers for 3%. Tone differs sharply: 44% of Levantine items are negative in tone against 17% of MSA items, a ratio of 2.6 times, and MSA is the only large group with more positive items (47%) than negative ones. Tone does not show what people think, and the leading position is shared: that foreign residents and refugees should stay away from the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation comes first among Levantine items (23%), Gulf items (31%) and Egyptian items (26%), and among MSA items it is level with a moral duty of gratitude and loyalty to Germany (25% and 24%), a position that appears in 10% of Levantine items.

05.3

Platform Breakdown

Where the conversation is happening and how it differs by platform.

Facebook carries 59% of what was collected -- the largest of the 2 platforms in this dataset.

% of items with a known platform · where the item appeared

Facebook

59%

1,565

YouTube

41%

1,067

Platform context

Facebook holds 59% of items, made up of 10 posts and 1,555 comments, while YouTube holds 41% of items, made up of 5 posts and 1,062 comments. Tone differs between them: 35% of Facebook items with a tone are negative and 28% positive, while on YouTube 19% are negative and 44% positive. Neutral tone is close on both, at 36% of Facebook items with a tone and 37% of YouTube items with a tone.

05.4

Voices & Influence

The accounts drawing the most engagement -- who they are and what they argue.

Voice analysis

The five most-engaged accounts together drew 10% of the engagement on the audience's items, so engagement is not concentrated in a small group of accounts. Voice_1 drew the most engagement, 145, of which 136 on one neutral comment, and Voice_2 drew 69 with a negative tone; both hold the position that foreign residents and refugees should stay out of the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation. Voice_3, positive in tone, says no to violence and theft and wishes Germany peace, and Voice_5, also positive, argues that migrants owe it to Germany to stay away. Voice_4 is positive in tone; two of its comments oppose the protests without giving a reason, but 63 of its 64 likes are on one saying Germany helped everyone and should have peace. So the most-engaged accounts lean toward urging migrants not to take part. Voice_5 and Voice_13, the account that wrote the most, are the two accounts the authenticity scan found posting the same message repeatedly.

Account	Platform	Items	Engagement	Share of Voice ⓘ	Main position
Voice_1	YouTube	4	145	3.6%	Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation
Voice_2	Facebook	1	69	1.7%	Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation
Voice_3	YouTube	2	65	1.6%	Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany
Voice_4	YouTube	5	64	1.6%	Opposes the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason
Voice_5	Facebook	7	57	1.4%	Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany
Voice_6	YouTube	1	55	1.4%	No main position
Voice_7	YouTube	1	53	1.3%	Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany
Voice_8	YouTube	1	53	1.3%	Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany
Voice_9	YouTube	1	53	1.3%	Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany
Voice_10	YouTube	4	49	1.2%	The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants
Voice_11	YouTube	9	9	0.2%	The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants
Voice_12	YouTube	9	7	0.2%	No main position
Voice_13	Facebook	10	0	0.0%	No main position

Share of Voice: each account's engagement as a percentage of the engagement recorded across every item the audience wrote in this dataset. Engagement = likes and other reactions. Replies and shares are not counted. It is a share of the reactions these items drew, not of how much of the conversation an account wrote: the items column is that. The pages' own posts and replies drew 86% of all likes and are not in this table. The table lists the ten accounts with the most engagement, then three that wrote the most among the rest (Voice_11 to Voice_13): three of the rest wrote 9 items each, and the table keeps two.

05.5

Discourse Map

The arc of the conversation around this topic.

05.5.1

Narrative Arc

How the conversation around this topic moved -- where it started and where it stands now.

Narrative arc

The conversation began on 20 October 2026 with 40 items, all under one thread, and 41% of items that day carried a negative tone. Volume then jumped to 465 items on 21 October 2026 and peaked at 852 items on 22 October 2026. The first turning point came on 21 October 2026, when the negative share fell from 41% of items to 19% of items, and it stood at 23% of items on the peak day. Because a different post led the day on 21 October 2026 than on 20 October 2026, that drop reflects a change of thread and of the people writing, not a change of mind. After the peak, volume came in at 421 items on 23 October 2026, rose to 538 items on 24 October 2026, and fell to 316 items on 25 October 2026, a day collected only in part. The negative share stood at 33% of items on 23 October 2026 and 29% of items on 24 October 2026, then rose to 49% of items on 25 October 2026, the second turning point. A different post, from a Syrian community group in Essen, led that last day, so this rise belongs to that thread. The negative share moved 30 points across the 6 days, so the tone did not hold steady. For the client, the lifecycle is a fast build to a one-day peak, then 400 to 550 items a day with the last day only partly collected, and a tone that depends on which threads carry the conversation at the end.

Window: 20 October → 25 October 2026 (6 days). Peak: 22 October 2026 (852 items).

Risk & Authenticity

Content flagged for review and the indicators the authenticity scan counts.

06.1

Risk Signals

Patterns in the data that represent potential reputational, narrative, or engagement risks.

HIGH Severity

Violent or inciting language: 4 items the scan matched as a threat against people; 10 more added manually after human inspection

The scan pairs an action with a target and does not judge intent, context, or whether a passage is being quoted rather than urged. The flagged items are kept with their thread in the case's analysis data, for the analyst to read; they are listed below by time and opening words, as written. 10 more were added manually after human inspection: one says to beat anyone who raises his head with a stick, then deport him; one calls for opening fire on anyone of any nationality other than German; one, in what reads as a parody of Syrian revolution slogans, still calls on people to burn the centres and take weapons from the barracks; one says their cure is chemicals or insecticide; one says anyone who goes out must be impaled and deported; one calls them germs who understand nothing but being trampled on and asks for someone to trample their honour; one tells another commenter that a dog like him should have his head trampled; one says he will "trample on the honour" of "this scum"; one says rioters are "a germ that must be exterminated"; one answers the police union with "we too will show you no mercy, you infidels". The list is what the scan and reading found, not every threat in these threads: in threads this size more can sit in replies, so read the busiest threads in full.

Comments are quoted as written; see the content note in the Summary.

Where to find them (time, page, opening words as written, platform id)

2026-10-20 19:41 UTC · post by Ja genau · روح انقلع انضل…
2026-10-21 17:09 UTC · post by MaroWeltShow - أخبار ألمانيا مارو · هذول علاجهم كيماوي… · id UgyfNie4ZKG5O1UkdeZ4AaABAg
2026-10-22 12:48 UTC · post by Furat Shibli · من يخرج متظاهرا… · id Ugyjne6Lh8PSS9NEzNJ4AaABAg
2026-10-23 01:00 UTC · post by Abdullah al-Dimashqi (عبدالله الدمشقي) · ولك الماني رح…
2026-10-23 08:29 UTC · post by Abdullah al-Dimashqi (عبدالله الدمشقي) · كلام دهب واي…
2026-10-23 13:40 UTC · post by Arab and Syrian Community in Germany (الجالية العربية و السورية في ألمانيا) · لعنكم الله كفار…
2026-10-23 16:59 UTC · post by Arab and Syrian Community in Germany (الجالية العربية و السورية في ألمانيا) · كل واحد قام…
2026-10-23 18:50 UTC · post by Arab and Syrian Community in Germany (الجالية العربية و السورية في ألمانيا) · الله ما رح…
2026-10-23 22:30 UTC · post by Arab and Syrian Community in Germany (الجالية العربية و السورية في ألمانيا) · الرصاص الحي هو…
2026-10-23 22:34 UTC · post by Arab and Syrian Community in Germany (الجالية العربية و السورية في ألمانيا) · كلشي بيطلع وبثير…
2026-10-25 09:01 UTC · post by G100 · اى جنسيه عير…
2026-10-25 12:57 UTC · post by G100 · الشرطه ستدعس راس…
2026-10-25 18:28 UTC · post by Nebras Akeel · انتو دواعش بني…
2026-10-25 20:50 UTC · post by Arab and Syrian Community in Germany (الجالية العربية و السورية في ألمانيا) · وين توار برلين…

Read the flagged items before drawing any conclusion. Content that presents a risk to people rather than to a reputation is a different decision from the rest of this report.

06.2

Authenticity Assessment

Whether this conversation shows signs of coordinated inauthentic behaviour -- bot amplification, duplicate content campaigns, or organised posting.

LOW RISK

4 signals detected across the 2,531 items the audience wrote (the 2,489 counted in the other figures and 42 items with no text).

LOW

2 accounts posted the same message repeatedly -- worst case: 5 near-identical items from one account; 10 repeated items in all, under 1% of the 2,531 items scanned.

LOW

2 pieces of identical text (80 characters or more, quoted verses left out) shared by 4 accounts -- worst case: 2 accounts sharing the same text.

LOW

1 near-identical template detected across 2 accounts.

LOW

6 bursts detected across 3 days (19 busy half-hours in all), where the number of distinct accounts in a half-hour reached at least 3x the dataset median of 8. Largest: 48 accounts at 2026-10-22 10:30 UTC. 5 of 6 bursts open within 90 minutes of a post opening here, which is what an audience arriving looks like. 19 of the 19 busy half-hours fall within 24 hours of a post opening here, when a thread draws its audience, so this indicator does not raise the rating. A post opens at its stored time, or at its first comment where that comes earlier or the post carries no time. The busy half-hours hold 668 of the 2,531 items scanned (26%).

Not checked: uniform hashtags: fewer than 10 items carry hashtags.

Context: the 2,531 items the audience wrote average 20.3 items/hour across the 125 hours the items span.

Authenticity assessment

The scanner fired 4 of the 5 indicators it could check, which gives a LOW rating. Some accounts repeated the same message, with 10 repeated items in all. Identical text appeared across 4 accounts, and one near-identical template appeared across 2 accounts: a begging appeal from "your sister from Yemen", unrelated to the protests. The repeats are one appeal for loyalty to Germany posted by Voice_5 under five posts, one reply posted by Voice_13 to five commenters, and two pasted thanks to Germany; variants of the begging appeal come from four accounts. That is a very small share of the set, and people can repeat the same slogan or reply for ordinary reasons, so this alone says little. Posting also came in 6 bursts, where many more accounts than usual were active in the same half-hour. These busy half-hours hold 26% of items. Every one of them falls soon after a post opened in this set, and bursts bunched into a short span like this match an audience arriving at a thread, so this indicator does not raise the rating. What the data cannot show is whether the accounts sharing these texts are linked; a person can check that on the platform. The hashtag uniformity check was not run, because too few items carry hashtags.

What to Do

What the analysis tells the client to prioritise.

07.1

Strategic Conclusion

The single most important thing this analysis tells the client to do.

Strategic conclusion

Prioritise tracking the 45% of items that hold a position opposing the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026 (against 5% that hold a position supporting them and none opposing), read by the reasons given rather than as one block. The reasons differ in kind: the legal-risk and deportation argument, the largest at 23% of items, is a practical caution, while the gratitude-and-loyalty argument, at 15% of items, is a moral one, so measure these 2 separately in later runs. Among items that state their reason outright, the order depends on how strictly that is read: the classifier marks 300 as stating the gratitude argument and 262 the legal-risk one, but about 50 of the 300 only thank, bless or respect Germany, and most of the 262 say to stay home or not to take part without naming a legal risk. The other 306 legal-risk items imply it, mostly by agreeing with a post that gave the warning. Re-run the analysis on later comments to see whether the balance between these reasons holds once 31 October has passed. The claims commenters make about legal consequences and about who is behind the protests are what this audience is saying, and they need verifying against official sources before anyone relies on them.

07.2

Actionable Recommendations

Specific steps the client can take, in order of priority.

R-001

OngoingCollect a second window before reading a trend

This report covers 20 October → 25 October 2026 and 2,632 items. Every share in it is a share of that window, so nothing here shows whether a figure is rising, falling or normal for this subject beyond this window. A second window, on later posts, gives a figure that can be called up or down, which a single window cannot.

07.3

Actions

What to do, in order, and by when.

Recommended actions

Review the 14 comments on the violent-language risk card: find each in its thread by the time, page and opening words listed there, read it with the replies around it, and hide, remove or report to the platform what threatens or calls for violence against people. -- immediate
Read the 190 items with off-list views (156 of them with no listed position) to see whether a position is missing from the list. -- within 2 weeks
Check on the platform whether the accounts sharing the repeated texts look linked, without assuming a cause. -- within 2 weeks
Re-run this tracking after 31 October 2026 to see how the positions change once the date has passed, and report them as shares of items with the source named. -- next quarter

Appendix

The quoted comments in full, with more examples, the entities named and the most-shared posts.

A.1

Quoted Comments

The comments quoted above, and more examples.

Comments are quoted as written; see the content note in the Summary.

Each comment is shown whole, as collected, with a translation of the whole comment. Grouped by the first position each holds.

May God bless your mouth, you are an understanding and aware person... But there is a question... Where are the sheikhs? Where is the Syrian Awqaf? Now there is a plot to distort the image of Muslims in Europe. Where were you? For fourteen years you stayed silent and mute, and never said a word of truth in the face of the oppressor. And today your own kin and co-religionists in Germany, the Syrians, need a word, a fatwa, a statement of position broadcast on all the channels and communicated to the German authorities and to Syrian nationals in Germany and all of Europe, stating that Islam is innocent of any sabotage, harm, theft or rioting stirred up in the countries that extended a hand of help and mercy to the Syrian refugee. And let a group of the sheikhs of Sham issue a call to raise awareness among the Syrian migrant, the refugee and the citizen in Germany not to be drawn into demonstrations whose aims are unknown and which are not licensed by the state, which carry within them ugly images and irresponsible, harmful behaviour toward a nation and a people who did good to every refugee and migrant... Dear good people, dear sheikhs, what is happening to you? When it really counts, you go completely mute. Hey, what are you, agents or what? Or do you really want the Syrian, and the Muslim especially, to be accused of villainy, lack of breeding and ingratitude? Come on, by God Almighty, you have driven us mad with your behaviour and your slackness. Is even a good word so hard to come out of your mouths?!!!!!!!!!!!!!

يسلم فمك انسان فهمان وواعي....لكن هناك سؤال ...اين المشايخ اين الاوقاف السورية ..الان يحضر لتشويه صورة المسلم باوروبا ..اين انتم اربعة عشر عاما صمتم وخرستم ولم تقولوا كلمة حق بوجه الظالم واليوم ابناء جلدتكم ودينكم في المانيا السوريون بحاجة لكلمة لفتوى لبيان لموقف يذاع على كل المحطات وتبلغ به السلطات الالمانية والرعايا السوريون في المانيا وكل اوروبا بان الاسلام براء من كل تخريب او اذى او سرقة او شغب يثار في البلاد اللتي مدت يد العون والرحمة لللاجئ السوري ولتوجه عصبة من مشايخ الشام نداء توعية للمهاجر السوري واللاجئ والمواطن في المانيا بعدم الانجرار وراء تظاهرات غير معروفة المقاصد وغير مرخصة من الدولة تحمل في طياتها قبيح الصور والتصرفات الامسؤولة والاذية لامة وشعب قدم الخير لكل لاجئ ومهاجر ...ياجماعة الخير يا شيوخة شو عما يصير معكم عند الحزة واللزة بتخرسوا بفرد خرسة....لك شو عملاء يعني ولا شو ولا حابين كتير يتهم السوري والمسلم خصوصا بالنذالة وقلة الاصل ونكران المعروف لك والله العظيم خبلتونا تخبيل بتصرفاتكم وتقاعصكم لك حتى كلمة خير صعبة تطلع من افواهكم؟!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As Syrians, we have no stake in this at all. We appeal to the German state and the security forces: anyone carrying the Syrian flag should be arrested and questioned. As Syrians, we are not represented by anyone who calls for demonstrations. Every person represents only himself and does not represent the Syrians, because there is a third column that wants to carry the Syrian flag and cause damage, and to pin it on the Syrians. We call on the security forces to arrest him. We respect Germany and wish it all the best, and we wish safety for everyone. We call for building, integration and work. We hope that God will continue to grant us the blessing of security and safety. O God, amen.

نحن كسوريين ليسا لنا لا ناقة ولا جمل نحن نناشد الدولة الالمانية والقوى الآمنية ان اي شخص يحمل العلم السوري يجب إلقاء القبض عليه والتحقيق معة نحن كسوريين لايمثلنا اي شخص يدعو إلى التظاهر كل شخص يمثل نفسة ولا يمثل السوريين لانو في طابور ثالث بدي يشيل العلم السوري وتخريب وذتها في ظهر السوريين ندعو القوى الأمنية إلقاء القبض عليه نحترم الالمانيا ونتمني لها كل خير ونتمني السلامة للجميع نحن ندعو إلى البناء والاندماج والعمل نتمني ان يديم الله علينا نعمة الأمن والأمان اللهم آمين

Comment · Levantine · Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation + Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany + The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants · NEUTRAL tone · Facebook

Logical words, and thank you for this reminder and for caring about the safety of the members of the Syrian community. Freedom of expression is a right guaranteed to everyone, but wisdom requires us to know when, where and how to express our positions, especially given the sensitive circumstances we are living in today. Taking part in gatherings like these may open the door for certain parties to exploit any individual action and use it against foreign communities in general and the Syrian community in particular. It is not meant that only Syrians need to be careful in this way; the responsibility includes everyone, whatever their nationalities and origins. But it is our duty to protect ourselves, our families and the reputation of our community, and not to give anyone an opportunity to wrong us or to hold us responsible for the actions of others. "O stranger, be polite" (a stranger should behave well): respecting the laws of the country we live in, avoiding friction and provocations, and acting with awareness and responsibility are things that serve everyone's interest. All respect to freedom of opinion and expression, and the most important thing is that our dignity, our safety and the unity of our society remain above every other consideration. May God protect everyone and keep every harm away from them.

كلام منطقي وشكراً على هذا التنبيه والحرص على سلامة أبناء الجالية السورية. حرية التعبير حق مكفول للجميع لكن الحكمة تقتضي منا أن نعرف متى وأين وكيف نعبّر عن مواقفنا خصوصاً في ظل الظروف الحساسة التي نعيشها اليوم. فالمشاركة في مثل هذه التجمعات قد تفتح المجال أمام بعض الأطراف لاستغلال أي تصرف فردي وتوظيفه ضد الجاليات الأجنبية بشكل عام والسورية بشكل خاص. وليس المقصود أن السوريين وحدهم معنيون بهذا الحذر بل إن المسؤولية تشمل الجميع مهما كانت جنسياتهم وأصولهم. لكن من واجبنا أن نحافظ على أنفسنا وأهلنا وسمعة جاليتنا وألا نمنح أحداً فرصة للإساءة إلينا أو تحميلنا مسؤولية تصرفات الآخرين. «يا غريب خليك أديب»، فاحترام قوانين البلد الذي نعيش فيه وتجنب الاحتكاكات والاستفزازات والتصرف بوعي ومسؤولية أمور تصب في مصلحة الجميع. كل الاحترام لحرية الرأي والتعبير والأهم أن تبقى كرامتنا وسلامتنا ووحدة مجتمعنا فوق كل اعتبار. الله يحفظ الجميع ويبعد عنهم كل سوء.

Comment · MSA · Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation + The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants + Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany + The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants · POSITIVE tone · Facebook

Germany is not like the rest of the countries of the European Union. Its economy is strong, work is available, and the quality of life in the working-class neighbourhoods is very different from France, Belgium and so on. In those countries, the working-class neighbourhoods filled with foreigners have poverty, or you could say tin-shack slums. So even if demonstrations do happen in Germany, I don't think there will be violence and looting; they will be peaceful, and the German people are a civilised people who know what a state and national sovereignty mean. On top of this, the German interior ministry, that is the police, is strong, and whoever wants to flex his muscles in peaceful demonstrations will end up with the baton and prison. May God protect this country and keep it safe. It is enough that you destroyed your own countries with your own hands and ran away from them, and now you want to wreck the countries that hosted you and extended a hand of help to you. Enough clowning around and chaos.

المانيا ليس كبقية دول الاتحاد الاوروبي، اقتصادها قوي والعمل متوفر وكذلك هناك جودة الحياة في الأحياء الشعبية تختلف كثير على فرنسا وبلجيكا ووو ففي هذه الدول بالأحياء الشعبية المملوءة بالأجانب هناك فقر او يمكن القول احياء قصديرية إذا حتى وان وقعت مظاهرات في المانيا لا اعتقد ان يكون عنف ونهب بل تكون سلمية والشعب الالماني شعب متحضر ويعرف مامعنى الدولة والسيادة الوطنية زد على هذا الداخلية الالمانية قوية ووالي يحب يستعرض عضلاته في المظاهرات السلمية يكونو مصيره العصى والسجن وربي يستر هذا البلد ويجعله امن يكفي ماخبرتم بلدانكم بايديكم وهربتوا منها وتو تحبوا تخربوا الدول التي ضيفتكم ومدت لكم يد المعاونة كفاكم تهريج وفوضى

Comment · MSA · Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany + Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home · NEGATIVE tone · Facebook

Comment · Levantine · Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany · POSITIVE tone · YouTube

Comment · MSA · Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home · NEGATIVE tone · Facebook

I am Palestinian and I say: do not be fooled by the raising of the Palestinian flag... We are peoples who build and do not destroy, and we do not repay good with evil... This is a pivotal period for all foreigners, especially Muslims, Arabs, Kurds, Amazigh, and every group that belongs to the Middle East... I call for a counter-campaign: that we go down to the streets and clean the streets as volunteers, all of us foreigners, carrying only the German flag and handing out roses to everyone... We are people with a message of peace... And thank you, Germany, for what you have given to everyone... despite the biased policy.

انا فلسطيني واقول لا يغركم رفع علم فلسطين...نحن شعوب نبني ولا نهدم و لا نقابل الحسنة بسيئة ...هذه فترة مفصلية لكل الأجانب وخصوصاً المسلمين والعرب والاكراد والامازيغ وكل مكون ينتمي للشرق الاوسط...أطالب بحملة مقابلة بأن ننزل للشوارع وتنظيف الشوارع في تطوعي من كل الأجانب ونحمل علم المانيا فقط ونوزع الورود على الجميع...نحن اصحاب رسالة سلمية ..وشكرا المانيا على ما قدمته للجميع..رغم السياسة المنحازة

Comment · MSA · The protests are a dangerous trap designed to incite violence and smear the reputation of migrants + Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany · POSITIVE tone · YouTube

A10

All that's left is for you to ask the Syrians to become shabbiha and go out and suppress the protesters. My dear, the matter is exactly the opposite. When the immigrant or the foreigner goes out alongside the German to demand better hospitals, or affordable housing, or job opportunities and taxes, these are legitimate demands for everyone, and here the label of "foreigner" falls away and the fight becomes a fight for shared rights of society. And this is what blocks the way for the parties that portray the immigrant as a consumer and isolated, not a real partner and taxpayer who is concerned about the interest of everyone. And you, sir, with this logic are trying to turn the immigrant into a suspect who needs to prove his good behaviour, and this is the height of exclusion and a distortion of integration.

ما بقي غير تطلب من السوريين يصيروا شبيحة وينزلوا يقمعوا المتظاهرين يا حبيبي الموضوع هو على العكس تماما وقت ينزل المهاجر أو الأجنبي بجانب الألماني للمطالبة بـتحسين المستشفيات أو توفير سكن بأسعار معقولة أو فرص العمل والضرائب فهي مطالب محقة عامة وهون تسقط صفة الأجنبي وتتحول المعركة إلى معركة حقوق مجتمعية مشتركة وهاد يلي بيقطع الطريق عالاحزاب يلي بتصور المهاجر كمستهلك ومنعزل مو شريك حقيقي ودافع ضرائب وعندو حرص على مصلحة الجميع وحضرتك عم تحاول بهاد المنطق تحويل المهاجر إلى متهم يحتاج لاثبات حسن سلوكه وهاد قمة الاقصاء وتشويه الاندماج

Comment · Levantine · Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances + The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants · NEUTRAL tone · Facebook

A11

Comment · MSA · Participation is a legitimate democratic right and a way to address real socio-economic grievances · NEUTRAL tone · Facebook

A12

Thank you very much, dear brother. Freedom of expression is a right guaranteed by the German constitution. But since there are people who cause chaos and damage public property, the police have a duty to revoke the permit to demonstrate, because Germany's security requires it.....

شكرا جزيلا أخي الكريم التعبير عن الراي حق مكفول بالدستور الألماني ولكن بما ان هناك من يثير الفوضى ويتلف الاملاك العامة فواجب الشرطة الغاء التصريح في التظاهر لان أمن ألمانيا يتطلب ذلك.....

Comment · MSA · Opposes the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason · POSITIVE tone · YouTube

A13

It's impossible for me to encourage anyone, or to encourage myself, to join demonstrations like what happened in France. What happened in France was barbarism, not protest. Where are the rights in looting shops, brands, companies and museums? Germany is our beautiful country, and we wish it well and want it to recover and go back to how we were used to it before the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and for all people to live well.

مستحيل اشجع احد او اشجع نفسي على مظاهرات على غرار ماحصل في فرنسا، ماحصل في فرنسا همجية وليس تظاهر ، وين الحقوق بسرقة المتاحر والماركات والشركات والمتاحف ، المانيا بلدنا الجميل ونتمناله الخير ونريده يصح ويرجع مثل ماتعودنا عليه قبل جائحة كورونا وحرب اوكرانيا وتعيش كل الناس بخير

Comment · MSA · The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France + Migrants have a moral obligation to avoid the protests as a sign of gratitude and loyalty to Germany · NEUTRAL tone · YouTube

A14

True: whoever has seen the barbaric events in France and Italy and still keeps calling for demonstrations seems to want to repeat the ruin and destruction in Germany!!! I believe Germany does not need Gen Z demonstrations, which always end in acts of vandalism.

صحيح من شاهدة أحداث فرنسا و إيطاليا الهمجية و يستمر في الدعوة للتظاهر و كأنه يريد تكرار الخراب و الدمار في ألمانيا !!! أعتقد أن ألمانيا ليستْ بحاجة لمظاهرات جيل z التي تنتهي دائماً بالأعمال التخريبية .

Comment · MSA · The protests will likely lead to widespread violence and riots similar to those in France · NEGATIVE tone · YouTube

A15

The right-wing parties are watching the situation, and all they want is the action of just one single migrant, regardless of which country he comes from (and they will exploit it and use it, and pin all of Germany's problems on the migrants, saying they are saboteurs and destroyers and a danger to Germany. God willing, they will fail, and their projects and plots will fail, through people's awareness and taking the matter seriously. The best, most correct and most right course is awareness, responsibility and respect for the law.

الاحزاب اليمينية تراقب الوضع و اريد فقط تصرف شخص واحد فقط من المهاجرين بغض النظر من اي بلد ( وسوف تستغله وتوظفه و تلسق كل مشاكل المانيا بالمهاجرين بانهم مخربين و مدمرين وخطر على المانيا . باذن الله سيفشلون و تفشل مشاريعهم ومخططاتهم بوعي الناس و اخذ الامر عى محمل الجد . الافضل والاصح و الصواب . الوعي و المسؤلية و احترام القانون .

Comment · MSA · The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants · NEUTRAL tone · Facebook

A16

Surely they're going to play the migrants card. Tomorrow you'll see the AfD's stunts. And let those naturalised refugees who are voting for them enjoy themselves, especially after they open up their naturalisation files, if they actually succeed. Unfortunately, I've started hearing from a lot of naturalised refugees that they support this party 😢

أكيد رح يصيرلعب بورقة المهاجرين ،بكرا شوفو أفلام البديل،وخلي يلي عم ينتخبوهن من اللاجئين المجنسين ينبسطو،خاصه بعد ما يفتحولهن ملفات تجنيسهن إذا فعلا نجحو . للأسف صرت سامع من كتير لاجئين مجنسين أنو هنن بيدعمو هالحزب😢

Comment · Levantine · The far right (AfD) will exploit the protests to turn opinion against migrants · NEGATIVE tone · YouTube

A17

Whether we take part or not, the Arabs will be blamed, because many of us, sadly, have become politically worthless, mere froth, like the froth carried by a flood. All we care about is eating, drinking and sleeping. And I am disappointed in you, Mr. Khaled, because I have never once seen you talk about the Palestine issue, or about how the government supported arms exports, and also the attacks on the demonstrators in Berlin. I feel that this channel is no better than the government channels.

شاركنا او لم نشارك فسوف يتم اتهام العرب لأن كثير منا للاسف اصبح بلا قيمة سياسية مجرد غثاء كغثاء السيل همنا الأكل و الشرب و النوم و انا حزين منك أستاذ خالد لأنى ما شوفتك و لا مرة بتتكلم عن قضية فلسطين و لا كيف دعمت الحكومة تصدير السلاح و كمان الاعتدائات على المتظاهرين ببرلين و بحس انه هذه القناة بتسوى مثل القنوات الحكومية

Comment · MSA · The protests are irrelevant or unlikely to have a significant impact · NEGATIVE tone · YouTube

A18

There is no point now; you are very late. The decisions have been issued, they are ready, and they will be carried out against all the Muslim refugees who are in Europe, America, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. If these peoples did not succeed in their own countries, will countries that are not theirs be safe from them?

ما عدا الها فائدة تأخرتم كثيرا و القرارات صدرت و جاهزه و ستنفذ على جميع الآجئين المسلمين الموجودين في أوروبا أمريكا و استراليا و نيوزيلندا و كندا اذا هذه الشعوب لم تفلح في اوطانهم فهل تسلم منهم أوطان ليست اوطانهم

Comment · MSA · The protests are irrelevant or unlikely to have a significant impact + Migrants, Syrians or Arabs are criminal or destructive and should be deported or go home · NEGATIVE tone · Facebook

A19

Without theft and vandalism. Set the example for the French.

من غير سرقة وتكسير . اعطوا المثل للفرنسيين

Comment · MSA · Supports the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason · NEUTRAL tone · Facebook

A20

Oh Hamburg, we're with you to the death.

ياهامبورغ نحنا معاكي للموت

Comment · Levantine · Supports the youth protests planned in Germany for 31 October 2026, without giving a reason · POSITIVE tone · Facebook

A.2

Most-Shared Content

Shares were recorded for 3 of the 15 posts; the table shows those 3.

#	Content	Platform	Shares	Dialect	Tone
1	🚨 تنبيه هام إلى أبناء الجالية السورية في ألمانيا وأوروبا 🇸🇾🇩🇪 تداولت أنباء عن دعوات للمشاركة في مظاهرات بتاريخ 30 و31 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول، دعت إليها بعض الأحزاب اليسارية في ألمانيا. نرجو من جميع … Important alert to the Syrian community in Germany and Europe: News has circulated regarding calls to participate in demonstrations on October 30 and 31, called for by some leftist parties in Germany. …	Facebook	436	--	--
2	مظاهرة السبت ما بتستاهل تخاطر بإقامتك ومستقبل عيلتك كرمالها. خليكم ببيوتكم! Saturday's protest is not worth risking your residency and your family's future for. Stay in your homes!	Facebook	95	--	--
3	حملة الولاء لألمانيا من جانب السوريين قاطعوا جميع الدعوات للتظاهر في ألمانيا يوم 31 أكتوبر، فحماية أمن ألمانيا وسلامها واجبٌ علينا. يرجى التعميم على اوسع نطاق A loyalty campaign for Germany by Syrians: Boycott all calls to demonstrate in Germany on October 31st, for protecting the security and peace of Germany is our duty. Please circulate this as widely as possible.	Facebook	22	--	--

Posts by the pages this conversation was collected from carry no tone or dialect here, as everywhere else in this report: they are the pages speaking, not the audience.

A.3

Entity Detection

Named people, organisations, policies, concepts, and other entities appearing in the conversation.

Entity analysis

Germany draws the most attention, named in 552 items, followed by Europe with 106, France with 79 and Khaled Bozan with 76. Syria follows with 66 items. Led by the views recorded toward each name, the leading sentiment toward Germany, Khaled Bozan, Germans, Palestine and Maro is positive (349, 56, 16, 8 and 20 items), and toward Europe, France, Syria, Syrians and AfD negative (24, 30, 20, 11 and 19 items). By item tone alone, items naming France lean neutral (47 neutral, 23 negative). No entity in the table is mixed, though Palestine's lead is thin (8 against 6 neutral), as is Europe's (24 against 18 neutral).

Entity	Type	Mentions	Leading sentiment
Germany (ألمانيا)	Location	552	Positive
Europe (أوروبا)	Location	106	Negative
France (فرنسا)	Location	79	Negative
Khaled Bozan (خالد بوزان)	Person	76	Positive
Syria (سوريا)	Location	66	Negative
Syrians (السوريين)	Group	34	Negative
Germans (الألمان)	Group	33	Positive
Palestine (فلسطين)	Location	25	Positive
AfD	Organisation	23	Negative
Maro (مارو)	Person	22	Positive

Mentions: items in which the classifier listed the entity; a word search can find more. Leading sentiment: the view the classifier recorded toward the entity, where it recorded at least five. With fewer, the recorded view where there is one, otherwise the tone of the item that names it. A view and a tone can differ: a comment angry at those who insulted someone is negative in tone and positive toward him. Mixed means the leader led the runner-up by a fifth or less.

Method & Definitions

What each comment is asked, how the figures are made, and how to read them.

What each comment is asked

Label	Question	Example from this report	How it is set
Position	What does the comment claim?	“Foreign residents and refugees should not participate in the protests to avoid legal risks and deportation”	From a list proposed from the data and approved by the analyst before any comment is classified. A comment can hold several positions, or none.
Theme	What is it about?	Integration and Gratitude	Neutral topics drawn from this conversation. A theme names a subject, never a verdict on it; verdicts are positions.
Frame	How does it argue?	Moral Condemnation	One fixed set of eleven ways of arguing (ridicule, insult, moral condemnation, religious citation, personal testimony, economic reasoning, expertise, comparison, plea, question, greeting), defined the same way in every report so frames can be compared across reports.
Tone	How does it sound?	Positive, negative or neutral	The emotional register of the comment itself, whatever it is about: a blessing is positive, an insult negative. Tone is not a view of the subject; that is what positions record.

For and against are not asked of the model. The analyst tags each position as supporting, opposing or neither; a comment counts as for or against from the positions it holds.

How this report was made

1. Collection

2,531 audience comments under 15 posts on Facebook and YouTube, 20 October → 25 October 2026. The pages’ own 15 posts and 86 comments are kept apart: they are the pages speaking, not the audience.

2. Reading the conversation

Before classification, a sample spread across the whole conversation is read and a list of positions is proposed. The analyst reviews it, edits it and approves it.

3. Classification

Each comment is classified on its own, against written definitions, with the same instructions for every comment. Positions are assigned in a separate pass in which the classifier is never told which side a position is on.

4. Counting

Every figure is counted directly from those classifications, with its base stated. The analyst then corrected the positions of 39 comments after reading them; the figures are counted after those corrections. Any table that breaks a figure down by source, period or dialect shows no shares within groups smaller than 30 comments; the table of how each position is argued keeps them and says which they are.

5. Writing

The narrative is written from the counted figures. Every percentage the writing model produces is checked automatically against the counts, and a statement that does not match is removed. Each report is read in full by an expert before release, and any figure added in that read is recounted by hand.

6. Quotes

Comments are chosen to show the positions in their holders' own words. Names of private individuals are removed. Each quoted comment is translated in full and shown beside its original.

Classification, writing and translation use a number of the latest frontier language models.

How accurate the classification is

According to our internal evaluation, the classification of dialect and tone is between 80 and 90 percent accurate. Read a difference of a few points between two figures as no difference.

How to read the figures

The figures describe the comments collected under these posts, not public opinion at large.
A comment can hold several positions, themes or frames, so those percentages add up to more than 100% (the position bars in section 03, "No listed position" included, add up to 112%). Each item has at most one tone. The tone shares divide by the 2,489 items counted (the audience's, with text; the posts and replies of the pages are left out), so they add up to 100% before rounding.
Short, sarcastic or ambiguous comments are the hardest to read. The quotes in section 03 and the appendix let you check the reading against the comments themselves.

The language of the comments

Some comments contain offensive language: insults, slurs and attacks on groups or individuals. The platforms and their moderation left these comments up, so they are part of the conversation this report describes: they are counted with every other comment, and some appear among the quoted examples, reproduced as collected, so that a position is shown as its holders put it. The language and content of the comments do not reflect the views of the Discursa team, and the team does not endorse them.

Other terms

Explicit / implied

Explicit when the comment itself states the position; implied when a reader of the thread would take it to mean it without it being said.

No listed position

The comment holds none of the listed positions: a greeting to a friend, a tag, a question, or a view not on the list.

View not on the list

A clear view that is not one of the listed positions. Recorded in the classifier's own words so the list can be revised.

For / against

Derived, not classified: a comment counts as against when it holds a position the analyst tagged as opposing the subject and none supporting it, and the reverse for "in favour". The tags are the analyst's; the model is never asked whether a comment is for or against anything.

Dialect

The language, or the Arabic regional variety, detected in each item, reported as one of six values: MSA (Modern Standard Arabic, the written register used across the region), Levantine (Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine), Gulf (the Arabian peninsula; Iraqi is grouped with Gulf here), Egyptian, Maghrebi (North Africa) and English. A variety names the speech community someone writes in, which follows where that community is from -- not where its members are now. A Syrian in Berlin writes Levantine, so this distribution does not locate the audience and MSA, the formal register, locates nobody at all.

Engagement

The total number of interactions an item received. In this report that is likes and other reactions, which is what the Share of Voice column divides. Replies and shares are not counted. Where the text says likes, it means this count.

Authenticity / Burst

A busy half-hour is one in which at least 20 different accounts post, or three times the usual number, whichever is higher, and a burst is a run of busy half-hours an hour apart or less. Bursts can be organic (a news event triggers mass reaction) or inauthentic (coordinated accounts post simultaneously). The authenticity rating weighs six indicators by the severity of each one found: repeated text, repeated text from one account, near-identical text, bursts of posting, uniform hashtags, formulaic account names. Two high indicators, or one high and two medium, rate HIGH; one high or two medium rate MEDIUM; any other indicator found rates LOW. It is a guide to what is worth a look, not a measurement of coordination and not a probability that the conversation was manipulated; each indicator has ordinary explanations the scanner cannot rule out. A rating of NONE means none of them were found, not that the conversation has been verified as authentic. NOT RATED means most of the six could not be checked on this data and none of the rest was found.