Topic Tracking & Discourse Analysis Report

All 15 posts collected are about a performance at the fair, none about the trade fair itself. Seven are about Marwan Khoury's concert of 29 August and hold 1,974 of the 2,226 items (89%); "the singer" below means him unless stated. The other eight, on other performers, hold 252 items, and the religious objection is 12% of items under both groups. So "the fair" in these positions mostly means its concerts. The most common position is a quarrel between commenters, most of it not about the fair, held by 29% of items (134 of the 639 also hold a position on the fair). The next is that the fair and its artistic events are a positive sign of recovery and joy, held by 16% of items. The religious objection that the music is sinful follows at 12% of items, then the argument that the fair insults the martyrs at 7% of items. Based on the positions people hold, 18% of items hold a position supporting the fair and none opposing it, while 26% hold a position opposing it and none supporting it. A further 28% of items hold no listed position. Complaints about the fair itself fall into religious objection, grief over the revolution, and practical complaints such as the power cut and wasted money.

Among the positions held by 30 items or more, those in which more than 15% of items imply the position rather than state it in the comment itself are: "The fair and its artistic events are a positive sign of recovery and joy for Syria" in 55% of its items; "The fair's musical events are sinful and a violation of Islamic law" in 30% of its items; "The fair is an insult to the martyrs and a betrayal of the revolution's goals" in 37% of its items; "The fair is a waste of resources given the economic crisis and poverty" in 25% of its items. 70 items (3%) hold a view not on the list (45 of them hold no listed position), among them, in no order of size: "The reconstruction of Jobar is a legitimate right and non-negotiable"; "Bashar al-Assad was a corrupt, sectarian, and non-civil person"; "Countries governed by religion are unsuccessful compared to secular developed nations".

Share of each source's own items; sources under 30 items are left out. The table shows the largest positions, and any other whose share of a source's own items the text gives.

By day, audience items whose positions were read and that carry a date; periods with fewer than 30 items are left out. The page whose posts hold most of the items is not the same every day, so a change between days can be a change of page rather than of opinion.

Comments are quoted as written; see the content note in the Summary.

One comment for each of the leading positions other than quarrels between commenters, translated in full. Every quoted comment is in the appendix.

• Negative runs 38 points ahead of positive.

% of the 2,226 items counted · tone of the item

Negative items, 55% of items, are led by arguments between commenters that have little to do with the fair, and these exchanges hold insults, curses and sarcastic jabs about someone's courage or character. The next largest position says the fair's music is sinful and against Islamic law, with some writers quoting Quranic verses or disparaging singers. Others object to the fair with no reason given, or call it an insult to the martyrs and a betrayal of the revolution's goals, and these arguments sit mostly under the public morality theme. Neutral items, 28% of items, include short, calm remarks that take no listed position, while those that do hold a position lead with the view that the music is sinful, alongside quarrels between commenters. Writers on both sides ask each other for religious evidence on singing, or quote a Hadith about music. Positive items, 17% of items, lead with the view that the fair and its concerts are a sign of recovery and joy for Syria, in warm and prayerful words, with some well-wishes and requests for particular singers.

"Electricity Infrastructure" and "Economic Priorities" are added to the chart because the findings cite them; they fall outside the themes it would otherwise show.

Not charted, at 0.5% of items or more: State Functions (3%).

In this theme, 43% of items are quarrels between commenters that have little to do with the fair. They trade insults such as "stupid", tell each other to leave the country, and accuse one another of hypocrisy about private sins. Another 28% of items in this theme argue that the fair's concerts and mixed crowds break Islamic law, with one commenter saying freedom ends where God's limits begin and that music is forbidden under the 4 main schools of Islamic law. One prays for God to cleanse the Levant of "these sinners", one tells officials to cleanse it of these events, and four turn the prayer back on the first ("God cleanse it of you"). Others say the money spent on such events should go to the poor and the needy instead. On the other side, 11% of items in this theme call the fair a sign of recovery and joy, with commenters pleading for tolerance and room for people to enjoy themselves, one asking critics to stay away and harm no one. A further 10% of items in this theme call the fair an insult to the martyrs and a betrayal of the revolution's goals.

In this theme, 42% of items are commenters quarrelling with each other, most of them not about the fair. They trade insults over where someone lives or comes from (above all Idlib, whose defenders say it freed the country), whether someone is educated, or who counts as a real Syrian, and several tell opponents to go and live in Afghanistan. Another 33% of items in this theme call the fair and its concerts a sign of recovery and joy. One prays for Syria to stay "full of goodness and happiness", welcomes the singer's return to the country and hopes another will come back too. Smaller groups push back. 7% of items in this theme say the fair should offer cultural depth rather than entertainment, and they mock "trivial" performers; one jeers at the "intellectual diversity" offered as the concert's justification. 6% of items in this theme call the fair an insult to the martyrs and a betrayal of the revolution. One quotes the verse on what believers should do once they hold power and asks whether a concert is how the victory should be repaid.

In this theme, 43% of items are comments welcoming the concerts as a sign of recovery and joy for Syria. Commenters thank the performer, call the concert "more than wonderful," say "let people be happy", and tell those who dislike such concerts not to go. Another 16% of items in this theme call the musical events sinful and a breach of Islamic law. One commenter calls such concerts "folly, debauchery and frivolity." Another 8% of items in this theme argue that a singer performing so soon after the deaths of Syrians is an insult to the martyrs. One commenter says the singer celebrated "the elimination of terrorism" in 2018, by which he meant the expulsion of the Ghouta's people, and another, in a reply he posted several times, recalls the shelling reported in Hama on the day of the singer's first Damascus concert, in August 2018. A further 17% of items in this theme are quarrels between commenters, such as mocking a critic who calls the concert forbidden by pointing to his own attendance at a similar party years ago.

Commenters who call the fair's music sinful make up 39% of items in this theme. They quote Quranic verses on corruption spreading and state flatly that attending a concert is forbidden. One cites a senior scholar's warning that singing and entertainment bring loss of blessings and the fall of states, and another a scholar's warning that music brings enemies, drought and bad rulers. Some also tell the people of the Levant that God had saved them from tyranny and that they should now repent rather than celebrate. A quarrel between commenters, not about the fair, accounts for 44% of items in this theme. In these exchanges people question each other's faith, tell an opponent to "stay aside" because he is not Muslim, trade insults, or argue over religious history. A smaller group of comments argues back that no one should impose their view on people who differ in belief; one adds that religion is meant to be easy. Comments that welcome the fair as a sign of recovery and joy make up 13% of items in this theme. Some answer the religious objection directly, saying that God loves joy and music or that the Prophet and early Muslims allowed singing and entertainment, and one that respected scholars taught the oud after lessons on hadith and law. In 13 of these items one account, Voice_13, tells critics that the god they worship is false, and in 12 advises them to change him. Another 11% of items in this theme call the fair an insult to the martyrs and a betrayal of the revolution's goals.

Commenters in this theme argue above all that the fair insults the martyrs: 41% of items in this theme say it betrays the goals of the revolution (the 2011 uprising against the Assad government). They ask whether the blood of the martyrs was spilled for this, and one commenter asks how a martyr rising from the grave would not curse those who run it. One calls the fair a "house of the Shabiha" (a term for pro-government militias), one says such events continue the fallen government's ways, and several recall that the singer used to sing for Assad. A further 32% of items in this theme are quarrels between commenters that have little to do with the fair. In these, people trade insults and argue over who really represents the revolution. One side calls the other "Daesh" or "Salafi" (strict religious conservatives), the other calls them "remnants" of the old regime or shabiha, while others reply that they rose up so that people would be free and not so that anyone could impose religious rules. Smaller groups hold other views: 7% of items in this theme see the fair and its artistic events as a sign of recovery and joy, and 7% call its music sinful under Islamic law.

Not charted, at 0.5% of items or more: Economic Reasoning (1%).

Of the items holding each position, the share using each frame. An item can use more than one frame. Each row shows its three most used frames, more where tied; frames held by fewer than 3 of a position's items are left out.

Frame descriptions

The chart counts the 2,279 of the 2,282 items that carry a date; the other 3 are posts by the pages themselves, which carry no date.

A post's stored time may not be when it was published: 610 comments carry a time earlier than their post's.

The items start at 18:49 UTC on 27 August and end at 11:39 UTC on 1 September, so the first and last bars cover part of a day. Read the ends as partial, not as a ramp or a collapse.

The bars above cover 2,146 of the 2,282 items (94%). The other 136: 16 published by the pages themselves, which carry no dialect; 40 with no text to read; 80 the report could not place in one of its six varieties: 48 unclear, 20 mixing two languages or varieties (most often Levantine mixed with English) and 12 that are only a tagged name or a platform translation, not counted as English.

Share of each dialect group's items; groups under 30 items are left out.

Levantine and Egyptian items sound the most negative in tone, at 61% and 60% of their items, against 49% of MSA items and 41% of Gulf items, a gap of about 20 points between the highest and lowest of those groups. The largest groups also differ in what they argue: 24% of MSA items say the fair's musical events are sinful and a violation of Islamic law, compared with 7% of Levantine items (part of that gap is quoted scripture, which is in MSA; see KF-001), while Levantine items are more often a quarrel between commenters that is not about the fair, at 35% of Levantine items.

Together, the five most-engaged accounts hold 13% of the engagement the audience's items drew, so engagement is not concentrated in a small group. Voice_1 and Voice_2 lead on engagement: Voice_1's single comment, positive in tone and holding none of the listed positions, is a Quranic verse on what believers must do once given power, while Voice_2, neutral in tone, holds the recovery-and-joy view in two of its 3 items and says, in the most-liked comment for the fair, that Syria is diverse and the fair is for everyone. Below them, Voice_3 quarrels in some of its 8 items, but 215 of its 234 likes are on one comment mourning the revolution's dead. Voice_4 is one of the four accounts the scan flagged: most of its 12 items are one verse sent to different commenters, and 214 of its 222 likes are on one curse on the concert, posted twice. Voice_5 has a negative tone, and its likes are all on rejection of the fair or the religious objection. Voice_13, the account that wrote the most and another of the four the scan flagged, repeats a few stock replies to critics across many of its 49 items. Counted by items, one of the five backs the fair and one opposes it; counted by where the likes went, Voice_3, Voice_4 and Voice_5 drew nearly all theirs on comments against the fair and Voice_2 on comments for it. The pages' own posts and replies drew at least 55% of all likes, more than all the audience's items together; about 8,400 of those likes are on three reels, read from the counts shown in their captions.

Share of Voice: each account's engagement as a percentage of the engagement recorded across every item the audience wrote in this dataset. Engagement = likes and other reactions. Replies and shares are not counted. It is a share of the reactions these items drew, not of how much of the conversation an account wrote: the items column is that. The pages' own posts and replies drew at least 55% of all likes and are not in this table. 4 of the pages' posts show fewer likes than their most-liked comment, so their counts look misread at collection, and the true share is likely higher. The table lists the ten accounts with the most engagement, then the three that wrote the most among the rest (Voice_11 to Voice_13).

2 signals detected across the 2,266 items the audience wrote (the 2,226 counted in the other figures and 40 items with no text).

Context: the 2,266 items the audience wrote average 20.1 items/hour across the 113 hours the items span.

The scanner flagged 2 of 6 indicators, which gives a LOW rating. The first is repeated text from single accounts: some accounts posted the same message more than once, covering 30 repeated items. The usual explanations are people re-posting the same reply or answering different commenters with the same line. The second is burst posting: 3 bursts of unusually many accounts within half-hour windows, all on one day, holding 38% of items. Bursts confined to a single day are what a thread normally produces when its audience arrives. Every busy half-hour fell within 24 hours of a post opening, so this indicator does not raise the rating. The repeats come from four accounts, each repeating its own replies, and the bursts all fall on one day, within 24 hours of posts opening. What the data cannot show is whether the accounts in the bursts are long-standing or newly created; a person can check that on the platform. Neither indicator, as counted here, shows that anyone coordinated.

Programme the next edition of the Damascus International Fair on the understanding that the music is a values dispute with sizeable groups on each side, and answer the operational and spending complaints. Among the 2,226 comments read, 26% hold a position opposing the fair and none supporting it, against 18% who hold a position supporting it and none opposing it. The largest single objection is religious: 12% of items hold that the fair's musical events are sinful and a violation of Islamic law, while 16% hold that the fair and its artistic events are a positive sign of recovery and joy for Syria. That is a contested moral question, so this report does not tell the Ministry of Culture or the fair to add or drop singers; a decision either way will disappoint a group of similar size, and the choice belongs to the organisers. What they can answer is the practical complaint that the fair's organisation and logistics are poor, held by 4% of items, and the objection that it wastes resources during an economic crisis, held by 3%. Publish the fair's costs, funding source and arrangements for crowds and power, and state the criteria for choosing performers, so that the next programme can be argued on stated reasons. Note that 29% of items are quarrels between commenters, most of them not about the fair, so moderating the comment threads under the fair's and the Ministry's own posts would keep the substantive arguments easier to read.

Comments are quoted as written; see the content note in the Summary.

Each comment is shown whole, as collected, with a translation of the whole comment. Grouped by the first position each holds.

Syria draws the most attention, named in 152 items, followed by Marwan Khoury with 59 and the Ministry of Culture with 33. The leading sentiment toward Syria and Marwan Khoury is positive, while the leading sentiment toward the Ministry of Culture, Afghanistan, Bashar al-Assad and Ahmed al-Sharaa is negative. Bashar al-Assad stands out among the negative group: 21 of the 22 items naming him carry a negative sentiment. Afghanistan follows closely, with 23 of its 26 items negative, but it is a taunt, not a subject: writers tell objectors to go and live there, and 11 of its 26 items are one account's stock reply (Voice_13). The Damascus International Fair itself (28 mentions), Idlib (21) and Saudi Arabia (12) show a mixed leading sentiment, and Damascus (29) is neutral. Idlib comes up above all in a quarrel over who freed the country.

Mentions: items in which the classifier listed the entity; a word search can find more. Leading sentiment: the sentiment the classifier recorded toward the entity where it recorded one, otherwise the tone of the item that names it. The two can differ: a comment angry at those who insulted someone is negative in tone and positive toward him. Mixed means the leading tone led the runner-up by a fifth or less.